Therefore, your choice to invest or donate should be completely independent of your AI beliefs, because no matter your AI predictions, you don’t expect AI companies to have higher-than-average future returns.
I do think that your AI predictions should bear on your decision to invest or donate now, as even if AI companies won’t have higher-than-average returns, the average return of future firms could be extremely high (given productivity gains unlocked by AI), and it would be a shame to miss out on that return because you donated the money you otherwise would have invested (in a basket AI companies or a broader index fund like VTSAX, wherever).
I feel somewhat confused about whether to expect that AI companies will beat the broader market.
On one hand, I have an intuition that the current market price hasn’t fully baked in the implications of future AI development. (Especially when I see things like most US executives thinking that AI will have less of an impact than the internet did.)
On the other, I accord with your point about it being very hard to “beat the market” and generally have a high prior about markets being efficient.
Inadequate Equilibria seems relevant here.
I do think that your AI predictions should bear on your decision to invest or donate now, as even if AI companies won’t have higher-than-average returns, the average return of future firms could be extremely high (given productivity gains unlocked by AI), and it would be a shame to miss out on that return because you donated the money you otherwise would have invested (in a basket AI companies or a broader index fund like VTSAX, wherever).