Conversely, the median estimate of all domain level experts is probably lower than the 3.9% presented here. The sampling of experts is non-random: people who are already concerned about AI risk are more likely to do the voluntary survey. The sample here had ~40% of experts attending at least one AI meetup, which is not at all typical for AI experts as a group.
This could also be true of previous surveys, like the 2022 AI impacts survey which had a response rate of only 17%. I reckon that if you added in the other 83% of experts, the median estimate would drop by a fair margin.
Conversely, the median estimate of all domain level experts is probably lower than the 3.9% presented here. The sampling of experts is non-random: people who are already concerned about AI risk are more likely to do the voluntary survey. The sample here had ~40% of experts attending at least one AI meetup, which is not at all typical for AI experts as a group.
This could also be true of previous surveys, like the 2022 AI impacts survey which had a response rate of only 17%. I reckon that if you added in the other 83% of experts, the median estimate would drop by a fair margin.