Fair question! I don’t know the answer. But I’d be surprised if the two came apart too sharply in this case (even though, as you rightly note, they can drastically diverge in principle). My sense is that GiveWell aims to recommend relatively “safe” bets, rather than a “hits-based” EV-maximizing approach. (I think it’s important to be transparent when recommending the latter, just because I take it many people are not in fact so comfortable with pursuing that strategy, even if I think they ought to be.)
Fair question! I don’t know the answer. But I’d be surprised if the two came apart too sharply in this case (even though, as you rightly note, they can drastically diverge in principle). My sense is that GiveWell aims to recommend relatively “safe” bets, rather than a “hits-based” EV-maximizing approach. (I think it’s important to be transparent when recommending the latter, just because I take it many people are not in fact so comfortable with pursuing that strategy, even if I think they ought to be.)