Fair question! I donāt know the answer. But Iād be surprised if the two came apart too sharply in this case (even though, as you rightly note, they can drastically diverge in principle). My sense is that GiveWell aims to recommend relatively āsafeā bets, rather than a āhits-basedā EV-maximizing approach. (I think itās important to be transparent when recommending the latter, just because I take it many people are not in fact so comfortable with pursuing that strategy, even if I think they ought to be.)
Fair question! I donāt know the answer. But Iād be surprised if the two came apart too sharply in this case (even though, as you rightly note, they can drastically diverge in principle). My sense is that GiveWell aims to recommend relatively āsafeā bets, rather than a āhits-basedā EV-maximizing approach. (I think itās important to be transparent when recommending the latter, just because I take it many people are not in fact so comfortable with pursuing that strategy, even if I think they ought to be.)