(My views are suffering-focused and I’m not committed to longtermism, although I’m exploring s-risks slowly, mostly passively.)
I do not feel compelled by arguments that the future could be very long. I do not see how this is possible without at least soft totalitarianism, which brings its own risks of reducing the value of the future.
Do you mean you expect all of our descendants to be wiped out, with none left? What range would you give for your probability of extinction (or unrecoverable collapse) each year?
If we colonize space and continue to expand (which doesn’t seem extraordinarily unlikely), the probabilities of extinction in distant colonies become less and less correlated, and the probability of all colonies being wiped out with none left to continue expanding would decrease over time. Maybe this doesn’t happen fast enough, in your view?
(My views are suffering-focused and I’m not committed to longtermism, although I’m exploring s-risks slowly, mostly passively.)
Do you mean you expect all of our descendants to be wiped out, with none left? What range would you give for your probability of extinction (or unrecoverable collapse) each year?
If we colonize space and continue to expand (which doesn’t seem extraordinarily unlikely), the probabilities of extinction in distant colonies become less and less correlated, and the probability of all colonies being wiped out with none left to continue expanding would decrease over time. Maybe this doesn’t happen fast enough, in your view?