I’m going through the hosted paper (“Forecasting Existential Risks”) and making some comments in hypothes.is (see here).
I first thought I saw something off, but now see that it’s because of the difference between totalextinction risk vs catastrophic risk. For the latter, the superforecasters are not so different from the domain experts (about 2:1). Perhaps this could be emphasized more.
Putting this in a ‘data notebook/dashboard’ presentation could be helpful in seeing these distinctions.
I’m going through the hosted paper (“Forecasting Existential Risks”) and making some comments in hypothes.is (see here).
I first thought I saw something off, but now see that it’s because of the difference between total extinction risk vs catastrophic risk. For the latter, the superforecasters are not so different from the domain experts (about 2:1). Perhaps this could be emphasized more.
Putting this in a ‘data notebook/dashboard’ presentation could be helpful in seeing these distinctions.