My assumption was that most of these categories will continue to depopulate (or host fewer conversations) in response to technological change, and note that the distribution of conversation is already heavily concentrated in bars and parties, and bars aren’t doing so well right now (should I assume we’ll get better covid vaccines by then? But will the bars come back?), and they’ll face extremely intense competition come VR.
I’m hopeful that physical schools will depopulate, but it’s possible that’s where my prediction will fall down, depending on how the myopia stuff turns out, and depending on whether education stuff can develop fast enough.
I think things will return basically to pre-pandemic normals and I’d guess that they mostly have already, although with more remote work.
I think it’s extremely unlikely that daycare, preschool, elementary schools and high schools will have a significant share done virtually.
I could imagine office work and university education going largely virtual, but 2030 seems far too early for most of it with very high probability. Even if we had perfect VR now, I still wouldn’t expect more than half to go virtual by the end of 2030. Things will probably move much more slowly than that.
This seems way too high to me. I think you should break things down (more).
Some conversations/​breakdowns worth considering:
between people living together (especially family),
at/​for school (elementary schools, high schools, trade schools, colleges, universities),
with/​between older people, conservatives and those living in rural areas,
between people at jobs that mostly won’t be made remote like trades, restaurants and (probably) retail,
at typical social gatherings (meals, parties, clubs, bars, other outings)
by socioeconomic class
I also expect some inconvenience from actually doing work within VR and switching in just for meetings to be annoying and not very useful.
My assumption was that most of these categories will continue to depopulate (or host fewer conversations) in response to technological change, and note that the distribution of conversation is already heavily concentrated in bars and parties, and bars aren’t doing so well right now (should I assume we’ll get better covid vaccines by then? But will the bars come back?), and they’ll face extremely intense competition come VR.
I’m hopeful that physical schools will depopulate, but it’s possible that’s where my prediction will fall down, depending on how the myopia stuff turns out, and depending on whether education stuff can develop fast enough.
I think things will return basically to pre-pandemic normals and I’d guess that they mostly have already, although with more remote work.
I think it’s extremely unlikely that daycare, preschool, elementary schools and high schools will have a significant share done virtually.
I could imagine office work and university education going largely virtual, but 2030 seems far too early for most of it with very high probability. Even if we had perfect VR now, I still wouldn’t expect more than half to go virtual by the end of 2030. Things will probably move much more slowly than that.