That also depends on how wide you consider a “point”. A lot of longtermists talk of this as the “most important century”, not the most important year, or even decade. Considering EA as a whole is less than twenty years old, investing in EA and global priorities research might still make sense, even under a simplified model where 100% of the impact EA will ever have occurs by 2100, and then we don’t care any more. Given a standard explore/exploit algorithm, we should spend around 37% of the space exploring, so if we assume EA started around 2005, we should still be exploring until 2040 or so before pivoting and going all-in on the best things we’ve found.
That also depends on how wide you consider a “point”. A lot of longtermists talk of this as the “most important century”, not the most important year, or even decade. Considering EA as a whole is less than twenty years old, investing in EA and global priorities research might still make sense, even under a simplified model where 100% of the impact EA will ever have occurs by 2100, and then we don’t care any more. Given a standard explore/exploit algorithm, we should spend around 37% of the space exploring, so if we assume EA started around 2005, we should still be exploring until 2040 or so before pivoting and going all-in on the best things we’ve found.