message testing from Rethink suggests that longtermism and existential risk have similarly-good reactions from the educated general public
I can’t find info on Rethink’s site, is there anything you can link to?
Of the three best-performing messages you’ve linked, I think the first two emphasise risk much more heavily than longtermism. The third does sound more longtermist, but I still suspect the risk-ish phrase ‘ensure a good future’ is a large part of what resonates.
All that said, more info on the tests they ran would obviously update my position.
So people actually pretty like messages that are about unspecified, and not necessarily high-probability threats, to the (albeit nearer-term) future.
This seems correct to me, and I would be excited to see more of them. However, I wouldn’t interpret this as meaning ‘longtermism and existential risk have similarly-good reactions from the educated general public’, I would read this as risk messaging performing better.
Also, messages ‘about unspecified, and not necessarily high-probability threats’ is not how I would characterize most of the EA-related press I’ve seen recently (NYTimes, BBC, Time, Vox).
(More generally, I mostly see journalists trying to convince their readers that an issue is important using negative emphasis. Questioning existing practices is important: they might be ineffective; they might be unsuitable to EA aims (e.g. manipulative, insufficiently truth-seeking, geared to persuade as many people as possible which isn’t EA’s objective, etc.). But I think the amount of buy-in this strategy has in high-stakes, high-interest situations (e.g. US presidential elections) is enough that it would be valuable to be clear on when EA deviates from it and why).
tl;dr: I suspect risk-ish messaging works better. Journalists seem to have a strong preference for it. Most of the EA messaging I’ve seen recently departs from this. I think it would be great to be very clear on why. I’m aware I’m missing a lot of data. It would be great to see the data from rethink that you referenced. Thanks!
On this particular point
I can’t find info on Rethink’s site, is there anything you can link to?
Of the three best-performing messages you’ve linked, I think the first two emphasise risk much more heavily than longtermism. The third does sound more longtermist, but I still suspect the risk-ish phrase ‘ensure a good future’ is a large part of what resonates.
All that said, more info on the tests they ran would obviously update my position.
This seems correct to me, and I would be excited to see more of them. However, I wouldn’t interpret this as meaning ‘longtermism and existential risk have similarly-good reactions from the educated general public’, I would read this as risk messaging performing better.
Also, messages ‘about unspecified, and not necessarily high-probability threats’ is not how I would characterize most of the EA-related press I’ve seen recently (NYTimes, BBC, Time, Vox).
(More generally, I mostly see journalists trying to convince their readers that an issue is important using negative emphasis. Questioning existing practices is important: they might be ineffective; they might be unsuitable to EA aims (e.g. manipulative, insufficiently truth-seeking, geared to persuade as many people as possible which isn’t EA’s objective, etc.). But I think the amount of buy-in this strategy has in high-stakes, high-interest situations (e.g. US presidential elections) is enough that it would be valuable to be clear on when EA deviates from it and why).
tl;dr: I suspect risk-ish messaging works better. Journalists seem to have a strong preference for it. Most of the EA messaging I’ve seen recently departs from this. I think it would be great to be very clear on why. I’m aware I’m missing a lot of data. It would be great to see the data from rethink that you referenced. Thanks!