This assumes that there is a 10% chance of extinction via AGI per day. I don’t think anyone believes it to be that high; frankly if it ever gets that high we’ve already lost.
I don’t think so, I think it assumes a 10% of extinction one time after we get AGI.
E.g. “we get AGI in 2050 → 10B people die (on average) in 2060 with a 10% chance” vs “we get AGI in 2050 + 1 day → 10B people die (on average) in 2060 + 1 day with a 10% chance”
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I don’t think so, I think it assumes a 10% of extinction one time after we get AGI.
E.g. “we get AGI in 2050 → 10B people die (on average) in 2060 with a 10% chance” vs “we get AGI in 2050 + 1 day → 10B people die (on average) in 2060 + 1 day with a 10% chance”