At the current rate of carbon emissions, the global temperature is expected to rise to 4 degrees Celsius from the 1850 baseline.
This is too high if it refers to 2100? Metaculus’ community is predicting 2.67 ºC in 2100 relative to 1880. In the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT), superforecasters and domain experts predicted 2.6 and 2.55 ºC in 2100 relative to 1850-1900 (pp. 462 and 463).
Hi Josh,
This is too high if it refers to 2100? Metaculus’ community is predicting 2.67 ºC in 2100 relative to 1880. In the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT), superforecasters and domain experts predicted 2.6 and 2.55 ºC in 2100 relative to 1850-1900 (pp. 462 and 463).