Re: 1, my impression is that Russia and NATO have been in a few proxy conflicts, and so have presumably worked out this deal.
Re: 2, that seems basically right.
Re: 3, I’d weight this relatively low, since it’s the kind of ‘soft’ reporting I’d strongly expect to be less reliable in the current media environment where Putin is considered a villain.
Note that at most this will get you an order of magnitude above the base rate.
Re: 1, my impression is that Russia and NATO have been in a few proxy conflicts, and so have presumably worked out this deal.
Re: 2, that seems basically right.
Re: 3, I’d weight this relatively low, since it’s the kind of ‘soft’ reporting I’d strongly expect to be less reliable in the current media environment where Putin is considered a villain.
Note that at most this will get you an order of magnitude above the base rate.