I will just note that 10x with 20% (= 25% − 5%) and 100x with 5% would/should dominate EV of your estimate. P = .75 * X + .20 * 10 * X + .05 * 100 * X = .75 X + 7 X = 7.75 X.
Great point. Perhaps we should have ideally reported the mean of this type of distribution, rather than our best guess percentages. I’m curious if you think I’m underconfident here?
Edit: Yeah I think I was underconfident, would now be at ~10% and ~0.5% for being 1 and 2 orders of magnitude too low respectively, based primarily on considerations Misha describes in another comment placing soft bounds on how much one should update from the base rate. So my estimate should still increase but not by as much (probably by about 2x, taking into account possibility of being wrong on other side as well).
I will just note that 10x with 20% (= 25% − 5%) and 100x with 5% would/should dominate EV of your estimate. P = .75 * X + .20 * 10 * X + .05 * 100 * X = .75 X + 7 X = 7.75 X.
Great point. Perhaps we should have ideally reported the mean of this type of distribution, rather than our best guess percentages. I’m curious if you think I’m underconfident here?
Edit: Yeah I think I was underconfident, would now be at ~10% and ~0.5% for being 1 and 2 orders of magnitude too low respectively, based primarily on considerations Misha describes in another comment placing soft bounds on how much one should update from the base rate. So my estimate should still increase but not by as much (probably by about 2x, taking into account possibility of being wrong on other side as well).