I think it would not have been difficult for you to do a back of the envelope calculation for how many net makers would be out of business for each amount of nets distributed (a net maker can make X nets, coverage was Y% before AMF arrived). The lack of even a bare bones quantitative case reinforces my prior that this is very unlikely to be a significant issue.
Agree a simple calculation as outlined wouldn’t be hard. That would effectively increase the cost-per-life-saved by 20%, say, which is noteworthy but not fundamentally changing things.
The real risk is the longer-term, hard-to-measure impacts which may hold back economic progress generally. These are by definition hard to fit in to a cost-per-life saved calculation but that doesn’t mean the impacts don’t exist. Knowing these risks exist and intervening anyway is a choice some donors will be comfortable with but others will not.
I think it would not have been difficult for you to do a back of the envelope calculation for how many net makers would be out of business for each amount of nets distributed (a net maker can make X nets, coverage was Y% before AMF arrived). The lack of even a bare bones quantitative case reinforces my prior that this is very unlikely to be a significant issue.
Agree a simple calculation as outlined wouldn’t be hard. That would effectively increase the cost-per-life-saved by 20%, say, which is noteworthy but not fundamentally changing things.
The real risk is the longer-term, hard-to-measure impacts which may hold back economic progress generally. These are by definition hard to fit in to a cost-per-life saved calculation but that doesn’t mean the impacts don’t exist. Knowing these risks exist and intervening anyway is a choice some donors will be comfortable with but others will not.