(1) Is this a fair/unfair summary of the argument?
P1 We should be indifferent on anti-speciesist grounds whether humans or some other intelligence life form enjoy a grand future.
P2 The risk of extinction of only humans is strictly lower than the risk of extinction of humans + all future possible (non human) intelligent life form.
C Therefore we should revise downwards the value of avoiding the former/raise the value of the latter.
(2) Is knowledge about current evolutionary trajectories of non-human animals today likely to completely inform us about ‘re-evolution’? What are the relevant considerations?
(1) I definitely agree with P1. For P2, would it not be the case that the risk of extinction of humans is strictly greater than the the risk of extinction of humans and future possible intelligent life as the latter is a conjuction of the former? Perhaps a second premise could instead be
P2 The best approaches for reducing human existential risk are not necessarily the best approaches for reducing existential risk to humans and all future possible intelligent life
With a conclusion
C We should focus on the best methods of preventing “total existential risk”, not on the best methods of preventing “human existential risk”
(subject to appropriate expected value calculations e.g. preventing a human existential risk may in fact be the most cost effective way of reducing total existential risk).
(2) I think unfortunately I do not have the necessary knowledge to answer these questions. It is something I hope to research further though. It seems that the probability of re-evolution in different scenarios probably has lots of considerations, such as the earth’s environment after the event, the initial impact on a species, the initial impact on other species. One thing I find interesting is to consider what impact things left behind by humanity could have on re-evolution. Humans may go extinct, but our buildings may survive to provide new biomes for species, and our technology may survive to be used by “somewhat”-intelligent life in the future.
Thank you for this post! Very interesting.
(1) Is this a fair/unfair summary of the argument?
P1 We should be indifferent on anti-speciesist grounds whether humans or some other intelligence life form enjoy a grand future.
P2 The risk of extinction of only humans is strictly lower than the risk of extinction of humans + all future possible (non human) intelligent life form.
C Therefore we should revise downwards the value of avoiding the former/raise the value of the latter.
(2) Is knowledge about current evolutionary trajectories of non-human animals today likely to completely inform us about ‘re-evolution’? What are the relevant considerations?
Hi, thanks for your questions!
(1) I definitely agree with P1. For P2, would it not be the case that the risk of extinction of humans is strictly greater than the the risk of extinction of humans and future possible intelligent life as the latter is a conjuction of the former? Perhaps a second premise could instead be
P2 The best approaches for reducing human existential risk are not necessarily the best approaches for reducing existential risk to humans and all future possible intelligent life
With a conclusion
C We should focus on the best methods of preventing “total existential risk”, not on the best methods of preventing “human existential risk”
(subject to appropriate expected value calculations e.g. preventing a human existential risk may in fact be the most cost effective way of reducing total existential risk).
(2) I think unfortunately I do not have the necessary knowledge to answer these questions. It is something I hope to research further though. It seems that the probability of re-evolution in different scenarios probably has lots of considerations, such as the earth’s environment after the event, the initial impact on a species, the initial impact on other species. One thing I find interesting is to consider what impact things left behind by humanity could have on re-evolution. Humans may go extinct, but our buildings may survive to provide new biomes for species, and our technology may survive to be used by “somewhat”-intelligent life in the future.