I would advise looking into plans that are robust to extreme uncertainty in how AI actually goes, and avoid actions that could blow up in your face if you turn out to be badly wrong.
Seeing you highlight this now it occurs to me that I basically agree with this w.r.t. AI timelines (at least on one plausible interpretation, my guess is that titotal could have a different meaning in mind). I mostly don’t think people should take actions that blow up in their face if timelines are long (there are some exceptions, but overall I think long timelines are plausible and actions should be taken with that in mind).
A key thing that titotal doesn’t mention is how much probability mass they put on short timelines like, say, AGI by 2030. This seems very important for weighing various actions, even though we both agree that we should also be prepared for longer timelines.
In general, I feel like executing plans that are robust to extreme uncertainty is a prescription that is hard to follow without having at least a vague idea of the distribution of likelihood of various possibilities.
Seeing you highlight this now it occurs to me that I basically agree with this w.r.t. AI timelines (at least on one plausible interpretation, my guess is that titotal could have a different meaning in mind). I mostly don’t think people should take actions that blow up in their face if timelines are long (there are some exceptions, but overall I think long timelines are plausible and actions should be taken with that in mind).
A key thing that titotal doesn’t mention is how much probability mass they put on short timelines like, say, AGI by 2030. This seems very important for weighing various actions, even though we both agree that we should also be prepared for longer timelines.
In general, I feel like executing plans that are robust to extreme uncertainty is a prescription that is hard to follow without having at least a vague idea of the distribution of likelihood of various possibilities.