At some base-rate we cannot just keep saying “oh, another failed past example of perpetual foundation. But that is ok, this is actually consistent with the conclusion that they are still a good idea.”
The dis-analogy here with business startups is that we actually have clear evidence that some business startups do drastically succeed to make up for all the failures. Granted, this could just be because there haven’t been enough perpetual foundations for us to finally hit on the great result that will make up for the failures.
So, although I agree your response on perpetual foundations is warranted, it still makes me raise my eyebrow.
Your response to perpetual foundations seems to have surprising and suspicious convergence.
At some base-rate we cannot just keep saying “oh, another failed past example of perpetual foundation. But that is ok, this is actually consistent with the conclusion that they are still a good idea.”
The dis-analogy here with business startups is that we actually have clear evidence that some business startups do drastically succeed to make up for all the failures. Granted, this could just be because there haven’t been enough perpetual foundations for us to finally hit on the great result that will make up for the failures.
So, although I agree your response on perpetual foundations is warranted, it still makes me raise my eyebrow.