There is a big jump between reading Superforecasting and actually doing forecasting, especially at work. One problem is that the book is written as a popular book, and so doesn’t cover the specifics you need—e.g. what techniques should you use to combine data to get a base rate? It would be useful to have something more textbooky which teaches specific techniques and gives lots of worked examples and exercises. Furthermore, there are many additional challenges of implementing forecasting in a policy or funder environment such as:
Decisionmaking is often messy and depends on answers to vague questions.
There is often a lot of time pressure that makes adding a forecasting process (or even just learning forecasting) difficult.
There are stakeholders that may need to be convinced of the value of forecasts.
How do you implement a forecasting system across a team such that you will keep adjusting your forecasts and come back and check how you did in the future?
It would be valuable to have a consultancy helping organisations such as funders and government departments implement forecasting in a real-world context. This consultancy could then over time build up a course or textbook that teaches what they have learned to a wider audience.
Pragmatic forecasting training
Epistemic institutions
There is a big jump between reading Superforecasting and actually doing forecasting, especially at work. One problem is that the book is written as a popular book, and so doesn’t cover the specifics you need—e.g. what techniques should you use to combine data to get a base rate? It would be useful to have something more textbooky which teaches specific techniques and gives lots of worked examples and exercises. Furthermore, there are many additional challenges of implementing forecasting in a policy or funder environment such as:
Decisionmaking is often messy and depends on answers to vague questions.
There is often a lot of time pressure that makes adding a forecasting process (or even just learning forecasting) difficult.
There are stakeholders that may need to be convinced of the value of forecasts.
How do you implement a forecasting system across a team such that you will keep adjusting your forecasts and come back and check how you did in the future?
It would be valuable to have a consultancy helping organisations such as funders and government departments implement forecasting in a real-world context. This consultancy could then over time build up a course or textbook that teaches what they have learned to a wider audience.