Re: Expert polling for everything (already listed on ftxfuturefund.org/projects)
Some questions that I think it would be very valuable to get the answers for:
1. Year with 10% chance of AGI?2. P(doom|AGI in that year)?3. What would it take for you to work on AGI Alignment ($ amount, other)?1 & 2 because I think that, for AGI x-risk timelines, 10% chance (by year X) estimates should be the headline, not 50%.And 3 should be asked specifically to the topmost intelligent/qualified/capable people in the world, as an initial investigation into this project idea.
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Re: Expert polling for everything (already listed on ftxfuturefund.org/projects)
Some questions that I think it would be very valuable to get the answers for:
1. Year with 10% chance of AGI?
2. P(doom|AGI in that year)?
3. What would it take for you to work on AGI Alignment ($ amount, other)?
1 & 2 because I think that, for AGI x-risk timelines, 10% chance (by year X) estimates should be the headline, not 50%.
And 3 should be asked specifically to the topmost intelligent/qualified/capable people in the world, as an initial investigation into this project idea.