In 2018, the Median Group produced an impressive timeline of all of the insights required for current AI, stretching back to China’s Han Dynasty(!)
The obvious extension is to alignment insights. Along with some judgment calls about relative importance, this would help any effort to estimate / forecast progress, and things like the importance of academia and non-EAs to AI alignment. (See our past work for an example of something in dire need of an exhaustive weighted insight list.)
Another set in need of collection are more general breakthroughs—engineering records broken, paradigms invented, art styles inaugurated—to help us answer giant vague questions about e.g. slowdowns in physics, perverse equilibria in academic production, and “Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?”
More Insight Timelines
In 2018, the Median Group produced an impressive timeline of all of the insights required for current AI, stretching back to China’s Han Dynasty(!)
The obvious extension is to alignment insights. Along with some judgment calls about relative importance, this would help any effort to estimate / forecast progress, and things like the importance of academia and non-EAs to AI alignment. (See our past work for an example of something in dire need of an exhaustive weighted insight list.)
Another set in need of collection are more general breakthroughs—engineering records broken, paradigms invented, art styles inaugurated—to help us answer giant vague questions about e.g. slowdowns in physics, perverse equilibria in academic production, and “Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?”