One potential niche could be betting markets around outcomes of political events (e.g., betting on outcome metrics such as GDP growth, expected lifespan, GINI coefficient, or carbon emissions; linked to events such as a national election, new regulatory proposals, or the passing of government budgets). Depending on legal restrictions, this market could even ask policy makers or political parties to place bets in these markets, to help the public assess which policy makers have the best epistemics, to hold policy makers accountable, and to incentivize policy makers to invest in better epistemics. (note: this also links to an idea presented in a different comment here -https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KigFfo4TN7jZTcqNH/the-future-fund-s-project-ideas-competition?commentId=zjvCCNuLEToCQyHdn)
One potential niche could be betting markets around outcomes of political events (e.g., betting on outcome metrics such as GDP growth, expected lifespan, GINI coefficient, or carbon emissions; linked to events such as a national election, new regulatory proposals, or the passing of government budgets). Depending on legal restrictions, this market could even ask policy makers or political parties to place bets in these markets, to help the public assess which policy makers have the best epistemics, to hold policy makers accountable, and to incentivize policy makers to invest in better epistemics. (note: this also links to an idea presented in a different comment here -https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KigFfo4TN7jZTcqNH/the-future-fund-s-project-ideas-competition?commentId=zjvCCNuLEToCQyHdn)