Note: Wanted to share an example. I think that while nuclear fission reactors are unpopular and this unpopularity is sticky, it is possible that efforts to preemptively decouple the reputation of nuclear fusion reactors with those of nuclear fission reactors can succeed (and that nuclear fusion’s hypothetical positive reputation can be sticky over time). But it is also possible that the unpopularity of nuclear fission will stick to nuclear fusion.
Which of these two possibilities occurs, and how proactive action can change this, is mysterious at the moment. This is because our causal/theoretical understanding of the science of human behavior is incomplete. (see my submission, “Causal microfoundations for behavioral science”) Preemptive action regarding historically unprecendented settings like emergent technologies—for which much of the relevant data may not yet exist—can be substantially informed by externally valid predictions of people’s situation-specific behavior in such settings.
Interesting thought. FWIW, I think it’s more realistic that we can turn around public opinion on fission first, reap more of the benefits of fission, and then have a better public public landscape for fusion, then that we accept the unpopularity of fission as a given but will have somehow popular fusion. But I may well be wrong.
Note: Wanted to share an example. I think that while nuclear fission reactors are unpopular and this unpopularity is sticky, it is possible that efforts to preemptively decouple the reputation of nuclear fusion reactors with those of nuclear fission reactors can succeed (and that nuclear fusion’s hypothetical positive reputation can be sticky over time). But it is also possible that the unpopularity of nuclear fission will stick to nuclear fusion.
Which of these two possibilities occurs, and how proactive action can change this, is mysterious at the moment. This is because our causal/theoretical understanding of the science of human behavior is incomplete. (see my submission, “Causal microfoundations for behavioral science”) Preemptive action regarding historically unprecendented settings like emergent technologies—for which much of the relevant data may not yet exist—can be substantially informed by externally valid predictions of people’s situation-specific behavior in such settings.
Interesting thought. FWIW, I think it’s more realistic that we can turn around public opinion on fission first, reap more of the benefits of fission, and then have a better public public landscape for fusion, then that we accept the unpopularity of fission as a given but will have somehow popular fusion. But I may well be wrong.