Also on Nick Beckstead’s review, the reason he made that comment is that in 2013, it looked like growth was linear (2011 and 2012 both added 100 members), which made it more unclear whether marginal activities were helping.
The situation is different today—growth is definitely faster than linear.
There’s now been two new impact evaluations after Nick wrote his, with much more in-depth and up-to-date figures.
Also on Nick Beckstead’s review, the reason he made that comment is that in 2013, it looked like growth was linear (2011 and 2012 both added 100 members), which made it more unclear whether marginal activities were helping.
The situation is different today—growth is definitely faster than linear.
There’s now been two new impact evaluations after Nick wrote his, with much more in-depth and up-to-date figures.