Figure 3 of the report you linked from Compassion in World Farming (CIWF) does show the transition from conventional to furnished cages happened just in 3 years in the EU, from 2009 to 2011. Very interesting. I did not know it happened so fast.
However, I do not think this implies keeping hens in cages in the EU will be banned from either 2032 or 2052 on. If this was the case, I would have expected bans in the EU to all start in 2032, whereas there are many timelines. 1992 for Switzerland (this one is not relevant for our discussion because it happened before 2012), 2020 for Austria, 2021 or earlier for Luxembourg, 2023 for Iceland, 2027 for the Czech Republic, 2028 for Wallonia (a region of Belgium), 2029 for Germany (2026 for non-exceptional cases) and Slovenia, 2030 for Slovakia, 2035 for Denmark, and 2036 for Flanders (a region of Belgium). Colony cages are still allowed in the Netherlands, and I am not aware of a ban on all cages having been announced there. Did I miss it?
In any case, do you think EU’s global influence is sufficiently strong to determine what to advocate for in Africa and Asia? I agree it would not make sense to advocate for furnished cages, for example, in China if this could undermine a ban on cages there from 2032 on (because the new furnished would still be very early in their lifetime then). Yet, I do not see situations like this coming to pass. I expect Africa and Asia to become cage-free at least 20 years after the EU does. So I believe there is time for new furnished cages there to operate for their full lifetime of 20 years.
And I very much like your idea (20 years enriched before total ban) but only if we make sure there are no second generation enriched cages. And I think the EU situation is now showing us this is difficult to achieve.
The EU countries you mention (BE, FR, GE, SL, SL, DK and CZ) are in the good scenario. If you start counting from 2010-2011 (built date of most cages) these countries all impose a transition period that is 15 years or more, which confirms my assumption that they took into account the infrastructure costs of those cages built in 2010-2011. I think the Luxembourg ban entered into force in 2020 (act of 2018) but I believe they did not have any cages anymore by then.
The problem lies with the other EU countries. If they (or the EU) do not ban enriched cages before the moment most companies invest in a second generation of enriched cages (around 2030-2032), I think we are stuck with these cages for at least another 10-15 years. Banning these second generation cages before they are written off (or at least for most part) seems politically/economically impossible.
“Colony cages are still allowed in the Netherlands, and I am not aware of a ban on all cages having been announced there. Did I miss it?”
No, you are correct. But I believe the infrastructure lock-in is the main reason why NL has these colonies instead of a total ban on cages. When Dutch politicians started pushing for a total ban on cages at the time, the minister asked experts to calculate the cost. And they pointed out that it would really hurt all those companies that had just transitioned from battery to enriched and invested in new cages (leading up to the 2012 ban). So the ban was off the table and eventually the political compromise was to allow transition from enriched to colonies, but only in 2021 to soften the blow. I think this again illustrates the problem of this lock in.
Thanks for the very relevant sources you have been sharing too. I strongly upvoted your initial comment because I have found this thread valuable.
The report you linked exploring the consequences of banning enriched cages in the Netherlands (here is an English translation) says conventional cages had fully depreciated in 2012.
Generally speaking, the majority of cage rearing systems were built between 1995 and 1998. 1999. With a depreciation period of 15 years, these systems had an average book value of zero in 2012.
2012 is when the ban on conventional cages in the EU started. So the above supports your take that cages will only be banned when they are near the end of their lifetime. However, I do not think this means a ban on cages in the EU will start, for example, in either 2032 or 2047 (= 2032 + 15). I think it just means the ban will have to be announced 15 years before it enters into force such that the economic loss is minimised. This is in agreement with the report above.
The total financial loss from the inventory of enriched cages, cages to be enriched, and rearing cages is €11.8 million. The loss calculation is based on a ban effective in 2012. If the period of use is shorter or longer, the financial loss will also be proportionally higher or lower. If the ban were to take effect in 2017, the financial loss would be €2.1 million. If the end date were to be postponed to 2020, the financial loss would be €0.7 million. In 2022 [15 years after 2007, when the report was published], the financial loss will be zero because the inventory, after a 15-year depreciation period, will have a residual value of zero.
As a result, if the EU announces a ban on furnished cages in 2026, I guess it will only start applying to all cages (instead of just new cages) in 2041 (= 2026 + 15) or so. Here is an estimate of the economic loss from shortening the transition period. From Table 1.1 of van Horne and Bondt (2023), the housing cost for furnished cages is 3.39 2021-€/hen, 4.84 $/hen (= 3.39*1.22*1.17). For hens with a lifespan of 70 weeks (WFI assumes “60 to 80 weeks for all systems”), 1.34 hen-years (= 70*7/365.25), the housing cost of furnished cages is 3.61 $/hen-year (= 4.84/1.34). I estimate there were 149 M hens in furnished cages in the EU in 2024. So I think renewing all furnished cages in the EU would cost 538 M$ (= 3.61*149*10^6), 1.20 $/citizen (= 538*10^6/(450*10^6)). I speculate 50 % of the value can be recovered via exporting the cages to countries outside the EU. Consequently, for cages fully depreciating in 15 years, the cost of shortening the transition period by 1 year would be 17.9 M$ (= 538*10^6*(1 − 0.50)/15), 0.0398 $/citizen (= 17.9*10^6/(450*10^6)).
As a side note, the calculations for the Netherlands did not account for the possibility of exporting the cages.
Because the systems are permitted in other EU countries, it is possible to sell enriched cages, and to a lesser extent, enriched cages, on the international market. Any potential proceeds from such a sale have not been taken into account in these calculations.
Agreed on the 15 years. My good/bad scenario was a bit too black/white indeed.
And good point on export. FYI: p. 10, 30-31 of the Flemish study also explains that it did not tak into acount the exporting option (because lack of data). But the study does mention that they did some interviews with companies and they replied that they were not eager to export outside EU because they did so with the battery cages at the time and this increased competition they considered unfair. Not very scientific of course but this makes is very difficult to argue (in a political) that export should be taken into account.
Figure 3 of the report you linked from Compassion in World Farming (CIWF) does show the transition from conventional to furnished cages happened just in 3 years in the EU, from 2009 to 2011. Very interesting. I did not know it happened so fast.
However, I do not think this implies keeping hens in cages in the EU will be banned from either 2032 or 2052 on. If this was the case, I would have expected bans in the EU to all start in 2032, whereas there are many timelines. 1992 for Switzerland (this one is not relevant for our discussion because it happened before 2012), 2020 for Austria, 2021 or earlier for Luxembourg, 2023 for Iceland, 2027 for the Czech Republic, 2028 for Wallonia (a region of Belgium), 2029 for Germany (2026 for non-exceptional cases) and Slovenia, 2030 for Slovakia, 2035 for Denmark, and 2036 for Flanders (a region of Belgium). Colony cages are still allowed in the Netherlands, and I am not aware of a ban on all cages having been announced there. Did I miss it?
In any case, do you think EU’s global influence is sufficiently strong to determine what to advocate for in Africa and Asia? I agree it would not make sense to advocate for furnished cages, for example, in China if this could undermine a ban on cages there from 2032 on (because the new furnished would still be very early in their lifetime then). Yet, I do not see situations like this coming to pass. I expect Africa and Asia to become cage-free at least 20 years after the EU does. So I believe there is time for new furnished cages there to operate for their full lifetime of 20 years.
Impressive overview—thanks for sharing this!
And I very much like your idea (20 years enriched before total ban) but only if we make sure there are no second generation enriched cages. And I think the EU situation is now showing us this is difficult to achieve.
The EU countries you mention (BE, FR, GE, SL, SL, DK and CZ) are in the good scenario. If you start counting from 2010-2011 (built date of most cages) these countries all impose a transition period that is 15 years or more, which confirms my assumption that they took into account the infrastructure costs of those cages built in 2010-2011. I think the Luxembourg ban entered into force in 2020 (act of 2018) but I believe they did not have any cages anymore by then.
The problem lies with the other EU countries. If they (or the EU) do not ban enriched cages before the moment most companies invest in a second generation of enriched cages (around 2030-2032), I think we are stuck with these cages for at least another 10-15 years. Banning these second generation cages before they are written off (or at least for most part) seems politically/economically impossible.
“Colony cages are still allowed in the Netherlands, and I am not aware of a ban on all cages having been announced there. Did I miss it?”
No, you are correct. But I believe the infrastructure lock-in is the main reason why NL has these colonies instead of a total ban on cages. When Dutch politicians started pushing for a total ban on cages at the time, the minister asked experts to calculate the cost. And they pointed out that it would really hurt all those companies that had just transitioned from battery to enriched and invested in new cages (leading up to the 2012 ban). So the ban was off the table and eventually the political compromise was to allow transition from enriched to colonies, but only in 2021 to soften the blow. I think this again illustrates the problem of this lock in.
Thanks for the very relevant sources you have been sharing too. I strongly upvoted your initial comment because I have found this thread valuable.
The report you linked exploring the consequences of banning enriched cages in the Netherlands (here is an English translation) says conventional cages had fully depreciated in 2012.
2012 is when the ban on conventional cages in the EU started. So the above supports your take that cages will only be banned when they are near the end of their lifetime. However, I do not think this means a ban on cages in the EU will start, for example, in either 2032 or 2047 (= 2032 + 15). I think it just means the ban will have to be announced 15 years before it enters into force such that the economic loss is minimised. This is in agreement with the report above.
As a result, if the EU announces a ban on furnished cages in 2026, I guess it will only start applying to all cages (instead of just new cages) in 2041 (= 2026 + 15) or so. Here is an estimate of the economic loss from shortening the transition period. From Table 1.1 of van Horne and Bondt (2023), the housing cost for furnished cages is 3.39 2021-€/hen, 4.84 $/hen (= 3.39*1.22*1.17). For hens with a lifespan of 70 weeks (WFI assumes “60 to 80 weeks for all systems”), 1.34 hen-years (= 70*7/365.25), the housing cost of furnished cages is 3.61 $/hen-year (= 4.84/1.34). I estimate there were 149 M hens in furnished cages in the EU in 2024. So I think renewing all furnished cages in the EU would cost 538 M$ (= 3.61*149*10^6), 1.20 $/citizen (= 538*10^6/(450*10^6)). I speculate 50 % of the value can be recovered via exporting the cages to countries outside the EU. Consequently, for cages fully depreciating in 15 years, the cost of shortening the transition period by 1 year would be 17.9 M$ (= 538*10^6*(1 − 0.50)/15), 0.0398 $/citizen (= 17.9*10^6/(450*10^6)).
As a side note, the calculations for the Netherlands did not account for the possibility of exporting the cages.
Agreed on the 15 years. My good/bad scenario was a bit too black/white indeed.
And good point on export. FYI: p. 10, 30-31 of the Flemish study also explains that it did not tak into acount the exporting option (because lack of data). But the study does mention that they did some interviews with companies and they replied that they were not eager to export outside EU because they did so with the battery cages at the time and this increased competition they considered unfair. Not very scientific of course but this makes is very difficult to argue (in a political) that export should be taken into account.