if we face a 50% risk of extinction per century, we will last two centuries on average. If we reduce the risk to 25%, the expected length of the future doubles to four centuries. Halving risk again doubles the expected length to eight centuries. In general, halving x-risk becomes more valuable when x-risk is lower.
Presumably the marginal cost is increasing as the level of risk falls. So I don’t think this is true in general.
Presumably the marginal cost is increasing as the level of risk falls. So I don’t think this is true in general.