It seems to me that this line of reasoning more favors investing rather than trying to reduce short-term x-risk. If we expect long-term x-risk reduction is more cost-effective but we don’t know how to do it, then the best thing to do is to invest so that future generations can use our resources to reduce long-term x-risk once they figure it out.
I do agree that investing is a promising way to punt to the future. I don’t have strong views on whether at the current margin one empowers future generations more by trying to reduce risks that threaten their existence or their ability to reduce x-risk, or by accumulating financial resources and other types of capacity that they can either deploy to reduce x-risk or continue to accumulate. What makes you favor the capacity-building approach over the short-term x-risk reduction approach?
Suppose you think efforts to reduce long-term risk are more effective than reducing short-term risk, but you don’t know what to do. Then it makes more sense to invest rather than spending your money on the less effective cause, because future people will probably figure out what to do, and then they can spend your investment on the more effective cause.
It seems to me that this line of reasoning more favors investing rather than trying to reduce short-term x-risk. If we expect long-term x-risk reduction is more cost-effective but we don’t know how to do it, then the best thing to do is to invest so that future generations can use our resources to reduce long-term x-risk once they figure it out.
I do agree that investing is a promising way to punt to the future. I don’t have strong views on whether at the current margin one empowers future generations more by trying to reduce risks that threaten their existence or their ability to reduce x-risk, or by accumulating financial resources and other types of capacity that they can either deploy to reduce x-risk or continue to accumulate. What makes you favor the capacity-building approach over the short-term x-risk reduction approach?
Suppose you think efforts to reduce long-term risk are more effective than reducing short-term risk, but you don’t know what to do. Then it makes more sense to invest rather than spending your money on the less effective cause, because future people will probably figure out what to do, and then they can spend your investment on the more effective cause.
If insufficient efforts are made to reduce short-term x-risk, there may not be future generations to spend your investment.