Despite this, based on conversations with some animal advocates, it seems likely that if animal advocates did no further actions to ensure compliance, only the most socially responsible companies would follow through because higher welfare broilers will probably be more expensive. Based on this, I created a custom probability distribution, with a mean value of 24%:
(...)
I expect the actual follow-through rate to be higher than this graph indicates because I expect animal advocates to do more work on ensuring compliance. However, this estimate assumes that they won’t.
Tracking the progress towards broiler commitments is planned in the future though. See ChickenTrack.
Does your distribution assume ChickenTrack will be abandoned, or assume it will be used like EggTrack has been, or is uncertainty in this captured in the distribution?
There’s also Chicken Watch, but I’m not sure if they’ll be tracking actual progress towards pledges, or just the pledges themselves.
When making the distribution, I imagined that these projects would continue, despite the fact that I didn’t include their future costs. However, if I recall correctly, until recently, there was only one employee working on EggTrack, so I don’t expect these costs to be very high. Hence, I think that for the purpose of this very rough estimate, these future costs can be ignored. I think that this is outweighed by the fact that the estimate includes some of the costs, but none of the benefits of corporate campaigns that were ongoing as of the end of 2018.
Does your distribution assume ChickenTrack will be abandoned, or assume it will be used like EggTrack has been, or is uncertainty in this captured in the distribution?
There’s also Chicken Watch, but I’m not sure if they’ll be tracking actual progress towards pledges, or just the pledges themselves.
When making the distribution, I imagined that these projects would continue, despite the fact that I didn’t include their future costs. However, if I recall correctly, until recently, there was only one employee working on EggTrack, so I don’t expect these costs to be very high. Hence, I think that for the purpose of this very rough estimate, these future costs can be ignored. I think that this is outweighed by the fact that the estimate includes some of the costs, but none of the benefits of corporate campaigns that were ongoing as of the end of 2018.