I’d say there’s about 30% probability I will do it in the next two years. I’ve just started a project for Open Philanthropy about estimating what should be the speed-up values in cost-effectiveness estimates for corporate and legislative welfare reforms, as that is the most uncertain aspect of these estimates. Open Philanthropy is the main target audience for this type of stuff and I don’t think that putting the rest of the numbers together for a cost-effectiveness estimate would influence them much. I’m unsure if another cost-effectiveness estimate is what’s needed to finally attract other large-scale donors to fund welfare reforms. People who care about cost-effectiveness have gotten the message I think. A new estimate would probably output a similar number because reforms have probably gotten less effective, but I now think that I underestimated cost-effectiveness in this report.
I’ve just started a project for Open Philanthropy about estimating what should be the speed-up values in cost-effectiveness estimates for corporate and legislative welfare reforms, as that is the most uncertain aspect of these estimates.
Cool! I am looking forward to the results.
I’m unsure if another cost-effectiveness estimate is what’s needed to finally attract other large-scale donors to fund welfare reforms.
I was thinking that it could still be useful to inform Open Philanthropy’s allocation between animal and human welfare interventions in their global health and wellbeing portfolio.
I’d say there’s about 30% probability I will do it in the next two years. I’ve just started a project for Open Philanthropy about estimating what should be the speed-up values in cost-effectiveness estimates for corporate and legislative welfare reforms, as that is the most uncertain aspect of these estimates. Open Philanthropy is the main target audience for this type of stuff and I don’t think that putting the rest of the numbers together for a cost-effectiveness estimate would influence them much. I’m unsure if another cost-effectiveness estimate is what’s needed to finally attract other large-scale donors to fund welfare reforms. People who care about cost-effectiveness have gotten the message I think. A new estimate would probably output a similar number because reforms have probably gotten less effective, but I now think that I underestimated cost-effectiveness in this report.
Thanks for the reply!
Cool! I am looking forward to the results.
I was thinking that it could still be useful to inform Open Philanthropy’s allocation between animal and human welfare interventions in their global health and wellbeing portfolio.