Do you think the follow-through rate, mean years of impact or average lifespan and number of chickens might differ substantially in predictable ways based on company characteristics? E.g. are larger companies or fast-food chains more or less likely to follow through than smaller companies or other types of companies? Do you think this would have much impact on your estimate?
I have some intuitions going both ways here. I’d expect it to be more difficult for larger companies to make proportional (rather than absolute) progress because they require more chicken meat or eggs, and consumers might be more willing to look the other way if they fail because of their popularity, but the bad PR could also mean a huge loss, too. Is there a broad perception that McDonalds is basically pretty evil? How much do people actually care, given how popular it remains?
I do think that the follow-through rate for different sectors and countries will be predictably different. I don’t think that making a more detailed model to take this into account would have much impact on the final result.
Do you think the follow-through rate, mean years of impact or average lifespan and number of chickens might differ substantially in predictable ways based on company characteristics? E.g. are larger companies or fast-food chains more or less likely to follow through than smaller companies or other types of companies? Do you think this would have much impact on your estimate?
I have some intuitions going both ways here. I’d expect it to be more difficult for larger companies to make proportional (rather than absolute) progress because they require more chicken meat or eggs, and consumers might be more willing to look the other way if they fail because of their popularity, but the bad PR could also mean a huge loss, too. Is there a broad perception that McDonalds is basically pretty evil? How much do people actually care, given how popular it remains?
Charity Entrepreneurship did some analysis on cage-free progress, broken down for a few companies in EggTrack: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/WvgrGLDBko6rZ5qax/did-corporate-campaigns-in-the-us-have-any-counterfactual
I do think that the follow-through rate for different sectors and countries will be predictably different. I don’t think that making a more detailed model to take this into account would have much impact on the final result.