That all seems right to me, and compatible with what I was saying. The part of Sphor’s comment that seemed off to me was “against a much larger corpus of writings and communications by you and MIRI emphasizing risks from AGI”: one blog post is a small data point to weigh against lots of other data points, but the relevant data to weigh it against isn’t “MIRI wrote other things that emphasize risks from AGI” in isolation, as though “an organization or individual wrote a lot of arguments for X” on its own is strong reason to discount those arguments as filtered.
The thing doing the work has to be some background model of the arguers (or of some process upstream of the arguers), not a raw count of how often someone argues for a thing. Otherwise you run into the “damned if you argue a lot for X, damned if you don’t argue a lot for X” problem.
That all seems right to me, and compatible with what I was saying. The part of Sphor’s comment that seemed off to me was “against a much larger corpus of writings and communications by you and MIRI emphasizing risks from AGI”: one blog post is a small data point to weigh against lots of other data points, but the relevant data to weigh it against isn’t “MIRI wrote other things that emphasize risks from AGI” in isolation, as though “an organization or individual wrote a lot of arguments for X” on its own is strong reason to discount those arguments as filtered.
The thing doing the work has to be some background model of the arguers (or of some process upstream of the arguers), not a raw count of how often someone argues for a thing. Otherwise you run into the “damned if you argue a lot for X, damned if you don’t argue a lot for X” problem.