The higher you think the risk of extinction is, the less valuable giving later looks: you probably do better giving now either to improve the lives of pre-extinction people or to reduce the risk of extinction.
Futures where we avoid extinction are likely pretty strange, and I think historical reasoning around growth patterns seems unlikely to apply well. I don’t know how this goes overall, but it generally makes me more optimistic around capacity building (movement, governance, institutions, technology) than around building large financial reserves. But I’m far from an expert here!
If you got google stock options or grants from 2013 (I don’t know if you did) then those would have increased in value about 800%, so could your giving go much further if delayed to take advantage of gain?
About half my Google compensation was in stock grants, but I sold them as they vested. My future income was already so correlated to Google’s performance that I didn’t want any additional correlated risk if I could avoid it. Yes, Google did well over that period, but that wasn’t something we knew would happen. If I had wanted to be investing-to-give I would have done it with index funds. And if there were low-fee “everything except Google” index funds that would have been even better.
The higher you think the risk of extinction is, the less valuable giving later looks: you probably do better giving now either to improve the lives of pre-extinction people or to reduce the risk of extinction.
Futures where we avoid extinction are likely pretty strange, and I think historical reasoning around growth patterns seems unlikely to apply well. I don’t know how this goes overall, but it generally makes me more optimistic around capacity building (movement, governance, institutions, technology) than around building large financial reserves. But I’m far from an expert here!
About half my Google compensation was in stock grants, but I sold them as they vested. My future income was already so correlated to Google’s performance that I didn’t want any additional correlated risk if I could avoid it. Yes, Google did well over that period, but that wasn’t something we knew would happen. If I had wanted to be investing-to-give I would have done it with index funds. And if there were low-fee “everything except Google” index funds that would have been even better.