As a follow up, the more common proposal for this issue is to switch to ratios. For example, rather than saying you have a 99.99999% chance (7 nines) of not dying from a lightning strike this year, say that only 1 in 10,000,000 people die from lightning strikes per year.
I think this is harder when we’re discussing global risks and unprecedented risks. It’s hard to conceptualize humanity going extinct in 1 in 6 earths-this-century (Toby Ord’s guess). Easier to think of a 17% chance. Maybe percentages work best for one-off risks, and ratios work better when we have a base rate to work with?
As a follow up, the more common proposal for this issue is to switch to ratios. For example, rather than saying you have a 99.99999% chance (7 nines) of not dying from a lightning strike this year, say that only 1 in 10,000,000 people die from lightning strikes per year.
I think this is harder when we’re discussing global risks and unprecedented risks. It’s hard to conceptualize humanity going extinct in 1 in 6 earths-this-century (Toby Ord’s guess). Easier to think of a 17% chance. Maybe percentages work best for one-off risks, and ratios work better when we have a base rate to work with?