This isn’t something I looked into in depth, but I think that if AI drives explosive economic growth then you’d probably see large rises in both absolute energy use and in energy efficiency.
Energy use might grow via (e.g.) massively expanding solar power to the world’s deserts (see this blog from Carl Shulman). Energy efficiency might grow via replacing human workers with AIs (allowing services to be delivered with less energy input), rapid tech progress further increasing the energy efficiency of existing goods and services, the creation of new valuable products that use very little energy (e.g. amazing virtual realities), or in other ways.
I suppose this was briefly touched upon as part of Objection number 1, but could you comment on the apparent coupling between economic growth and energy use? See for example: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/electric-power-and-natural-gas/our-insights/the-decoupling-of-gdp-and-energy-growth-a-ceo-guide#
Is there reason ro believe AI could produce a decoupling of the two?
Hey—interesting question!
This isn’t something I looked into in depth, but I think that if AI drives explosive economic growth then you’d probably see large rises in both absolute energy use and in energy efficiency.
Energy use might grow via (e.g.) massively expanding solar power to the world’s deserts (see this blog from Carl Shulman). Energy efficiency might grow via replacing human workers with AIs (allowing services to be delivered with less energy input), rapid tech progress further increasing the energy efficiency of existing goods and services, the creation of new valuable products that use very little energy (e.g. amazing virtual realities), or in other ways.