Thanks for this, I think it’s really brilliant, I really appreciate how clearly the details are laid out in the blog and report. It’s really cool to be able to see external reviewer comments too.
I found it kind of surprising that there isn’t any mention of civilizational collapse etc when thinking about growth outcomes for the 21st century (e.g. in Appendix G, but also apparently in your bottom line probabilities in e.g. Section 4.6 “Conclusion”—or maybe it’s there and I missed it / it’s not explicit).
I guess your probabilities for various growth outcomes in Appendix G are conditional on ~no civilizational collapse (from any cause) and ~no AI-triggered fundamental reshaping of society that unexpectedly prevents growth? Or should I read them more as “conditional on ~no civilizational collapse etc other than due to AI”, with the probability mass for AI-triggered collapse etc being incorporated into your “AI robots don’t have a tendency to drive explosive growth because none of our theories are well-suited for this situation” and/or “an unanticipated bottleneck prevents explosive growth”?
I would read Appendix G as conditional on “~no civilizational collapse (from any cause)”, but not conditional on “~no AI-triggered fundamental reshaping of society that unexpectedly prevents growth”. I think the latter would be incorporated in “an unanticipated bottleneck prevents explosive growth”.