Value of information of initial investments in the project. If it’s not looking good after a year, the project can be abandoned when <<$10M has been spent.
80⁄20 rule: It could influence one person to become the new top EA funder, and this could represent a majority of the money moved to high-cost-effectiveness philanthropy.
It could positively influence the trajectory of EA giving, such that capping the influence at 10 years doesn’t capture a lot of the value. E.g. Some person who is a child now becomes the next SBF in another 10-20 years, in part due to the impact the list has on the culture of giving.
Considerations in the opposite direction:
Value of information of initial investments in the project. If it’s not looking good after a year, the project can be abandoned when <<$10M has been spent.
80⁄20 rule: It could influence one person to become the new top EA funder, and this could represent a majority of the money moved to high-cost-effectiveness philanthropy.
It could positively influence the trajectory of EA giving, such that capping the influence at 10 years doesn’t capture a lot of the value. E.g. Some person who is a child now becomes the next SBF in another 10-20 years, in part due to the impact the list has on the culture of giving.