The cost-effectiveness models include only first-order effects of spending on each cause. It’s likely that there are interactions between causes and/​or positive and negative externalities to spending on each intervention.
I think this is an important point. The meat-eater problem may well imply that live-saving interventions are harmful. I estimated it reduces the cost-effectiveness of GiveWell’s top charities by 8.72 % based on the suffering linked to the current consumption of poultry in the countries targeted by GiveWell, adjusted upwards to include the suffering caused by other farmed animals. On the one hand, the cost-effectiveness reduction may be lower due to animals in low income countries generally having better lives than broilers in a reformed scenario. On the other, the cost-effectiveness reduction may be higher due to future increases in the consumption of farmed animals in the countries targeted by GiveWell. I estimated the suffering of farmed animals globally is 4.64 the happiness of humans globally, which suggests saving a random human life leads to a nearterm reduction in suffering.
Has the WIT considered analysing under which conditions saving lives is robustly good after accounting for effects on farmed animals? This would involve forecasting the consumption and conditions of farmed animals (e.g. in the countries targeted by GiveWell). Saving lives would tend to be better in countries whose peak and subsequent decline of the consumption of factory-farmed crayfish, crabs, lobsters, fish, chicken and shrimp happened sooner, or in countries which are predicted to have good conditions for these animals (which I guess account for most of the suffering of farmed animals).
Ideally, one would also account for effects on wild animals. I think these may well be the major driver of the changes in welfare caused by GiveWell’s top charities, but they are harder to analyse due to the huge undercainty involved in assessing the welfare of wild animals.
Great post, Laura!
I think this is an important point. The meat-eater problem may well imply that live-saving interventions are harmful. I estimated it reduces the cost-effectiveness of GiveWell’s top charities by 8.72 % based on the suffering linked to the current consumption of poultry in the countries targeted by GiveWell, adjusted upwards to include the suffering caused by other farmed animals. On the one hand, the cost-effectiveness reduction may be lower due to animals in low income countries generally having better lives than broilers in a reformed scenario. On the other, the cost-effectiveness reduction may be higher due to future increases in the consumption of farmed animals in the countries targeted by GiveWell. I estimated the suffering of farmed animals globally is 4.64 the happiness of humans globally, which suggests saving a random human life leads to a nearterm reduction in suffering.
Has the WIT considered analysing under which conditions saving lives is robustly good after accounting for effects on farmed animals? This would involve forecasting the consumption and conditions of farmed animals (e.g. in the countries targeted by GiveWell). Saving lives would tend to be better in countries whose peak and subsequent decline of the consumption of factory-farmed crayfish, crabs, lobsters, fish, chicken and shrimp happened sooner, or in countries which are predicted to have good conditions for these animals (which I guess account for most of the suffering of farmed animals).
Ideally, one would also account for effects on wild animals. I think these may well be the major driver of the changes in welfare caused by GiveWell’s top charities, but they are harder to analyse due to the huge undercainty involved in assessing the welfare of wild animals.