Executive summary: Crises reveal that power is more centralized than it appears during normal times, both within nations and globally, which has implications for thinking about AI risk.
Key points:
“Extrapolation from normalcy” and “naive behaviourism” heuristics lead people to think power is more decentralized than it actually is.
In crises, governments exert more centralized control nationally, and powerful countries constrain smaller countries globally.
Even in normal times, less powerful actors often refrain from challenging more powerful ones due to implicit threats or power dynamics.
Ideology, such as liberal values, is a key reason smaller actors have leeway under normal circumstances.
If AI progress by companies or foreign actors is seen as a security threat, the US government would likely intervene, revealing the true centralized power structure.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, andcontact us if you have feedback.
Executive summary: Crises reveal that power is more centralized than it appears during normal times, both within nations and globally, which has implications for thinking about AI risk.
Key points:
“Extrapolation from normalcy” and “naive behaviourism” heuristics lead people to think power is more decentralized than it actually is.
In crises, governments exert more centralized control nationally, and powerful countries constrain smaller countries globally.
Even in normal times, less powerful actors often refrain from challenging more powerful ones due to implicit threats or power dynamics.
Ideology, such as liberal values, is a key reason smaller actors have leeway under normal circumstances.
If AI progress by companies or foreign actors is seen as a security threat, the US government would likely intervene, revealing the true centralized power structure.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.