Furthermore, if you’re sufficiently pessimistic about AI alignment, it might make sense to optimize for a situation where we get a crash and the longer timeline that comes with it. (“Play to your outs”/condition on success.)
That suggests a portfolio that’s anticorrelated with AI stocks, so you can capitalize on the longer-timelines scenario if a crash comes about.
Furthermore, if you’re sufficiently pessimistic about AI alignment, it might make sense to optimize for a situation where we get a crash and the longer timeline that comes with it. (“Play to your outs”/condition on success.)
That suggests a portfolio that’s anticorrelated with AI stocks, so you can capitalize on the longer-timelines scenario if a crash comes about.