I also think the case for outperformance of crypto in general is much weaker than for AI stocks
Separately, arguing for being able to beat the EMH with AI, but not crypto, seems a bit idiosyncratic. Why not any other sector? Why does it have to be the one we are particularly concerned about having massive negative externalities? Why aren’t there climate change worriers making similar investments in new oil and gas drilling, or vegans making similar investments in meat companies?
I guess you might say “because if alignment is solved, then TAI will be worth a lot of money”. But it’s complete speculation to say that alignment is even possible to solve, given our current situation. Much bigger speculation than investing in crypto imo. And the markets clearly aren’t expecting TAI to happen at all.
AI will be worth a lot of money (and “transformative”, maybe not to the extent meant in defining “TAI”) before alignment is much of an issue. Tasks will be increasingly automated, even before most jobs (let alone ~all jobs) can be fully automated, and prices will increase with increasing expectations of automation as it becomes more apparent (their expectations currently seem too low).
Do you expect that between now and TAI that would kill everyone, AI stocks won’t outperform?
Why not any other sector? Why does it have to be the one we are particularly concerned about having massive negative externalities? Why aren’t there climate change worriers making similar investments in new oil and gas drilling, or vegans making similar investments in meat companies?
Give me decent arguments for substantial outperformance and I’d invest (although probably still keep AI to diversify). I think there are decent arguments for AI. There seems to be pretty limited upside in oil and gas and meat, and I don’t have any particular disagreements with standard projections, or any apparent edge for these. If you find some edge, let us know!
Do you expect that between now and TAI that would kill everyone, AI stocks won’t outperform?
No, I expect they will, but it might be only a matter of months before doom in those cases (i.e. AI capabilities continue to advance at a rapid pace, AI capable of automating most work tasks happens, stocks skyrocket; but AI is also turned on AI development, and recursive-self improvement kicks in, doom follows shortly after).
If you find some edge, let us know!
Are you in the HSEACA fb group? Here’s a tip[1]: the relatively new crypto, WART. Heuristics: recommended by same guy that picked the 1000x (KASPA) and 200x (CLORE); geniuinely new algo (CPU/GPU combined mining; working on an in-browser node); fair launch and tokenomics (no premine); enthusiastic developers who are crypto enthusiasts doing it for fun (currently worth very little); enthusiastic community; bad at marketing (this is an advantage at this stage; more focus on product). Given it has only a ~$1.5M marketcap now, there is a lot of potential upside. I’d say >10% chance of >100x; 1000x not out of the question. Timeframe: 6-18 months.
Usual caveats apply to these: not investment advice, do your own research, don’t put in more than you can afford to lose (significant chance they go to ~0), don’t blame me for any losses, etc.
Separately, arguing for being able to beat the EMH with AI, but not crypto, seems a bit idiosyncratic. Why not any other sector? Why does it have to be the one we are particularly concerned about having massive negative externalities? Why aren’t there climate change worriers making similar investments in new oil and gas drilling, or vegans making similar investments in meat companies?
I guess you might say “because if alignment is solved, then TAI will be worth a lot of money”. But it’s complete speculation to say that alignment is even possible to solve, given our current situation. Much bigger speculation than investing in crypto imo. And the markets clearly aren’t expecting TAI to happen at all.
AI will be worth a lot of money (and “transformative”, maybe not to the extent meant in defining “TAI”) before alignment is much of an issue. Tasks will be increasingly automated, even before most jobs (let alone ~all jobs) can be fully automated, and prices will increase with increasing expectations of automation as it becomes more apparent (their expectations currently seem too low).
Do you expect that between now and TAI that would kill everyone, AI stocks won’t outperform?
Give me decent arguments for substantial outperformance and I’d invest (although probably still keep AI to diversify). I think there are decent arguments for AI. There seems to be pretty limited upside in oil and gas and meat, and I don’t have any particular disagreements with standard projections, or any apparent edge for these. If you find some edge, let us know!
No, I expect they will, but it might be only a matter of months before doom in those cases (i.e. AI capabilities continue to advance at a rapid pace, AI capable of automating most work tasks happens, stocks skyrocket; but AI is also turned on AI development, and recursive-self improvement kicks in, doom follows shortly after).
Are you in the HSEACA fb group? Here’s a tip[1]: the relatively new crypto, WART. Heuristics: recommended by same guy that picked the 1000x (KASPA) and 200x (CLORE); geniuinely new algo (CPU/GPU combined mining; working on an in-browser node); fair launch and tokenomics (no premine); enthusiastic developers who are crypto enthusiasts doing it for fun (currently worth very little); enthusiastic community; bad at marketing (this is an advantage at this stage; more focus on product). Given it has only a ~$1.5M marketcap now, there is a lot of potential upside. I’d say >10% chance of >100x; 1000x not out of the question. Timeframe: 6-18 months.
Another: Equator Therapeutics[2].
Usual caveats apply to these: not investment advice, do your own research, don’t put in more than you can afford to lose (significant chance they go to ~0), don’t blame me for any losses, etc.
Join the group to see more.