Executive summary: A potential crash in AI stocks, while not necessarily reflecting long-term AI progress, could have negative short-term effects on AI safety efforts through reduced funding, shifted public sentiment, and second-order impacts on the AI safety community.
Key points:
AI stocks, like Nvidia, have a significant chance of crashing 50% or more in the coming years based on historical volatility and typical patterns with new technologies.
A crash could occur if AI revenues fail to grow fast enough to meet market expectations, even if capabilities continue advancing, or due to broader economic factors.
An AI stock crash could modestly lengthen AI timelines by reducing investment capital, especially for startups.
The wealth of many AI safety donors is correlated with AI stocks, so a crash could tighten the funding landscape for AI safety organizations.
Public sentiment could turn against AI safety concerns after a crash, branding advocates as alarmists and making it harder to push for policy changes.
Second-order effects, like damaged morale and increased media attacks, could exacerbate the direct impacts of a crash on the AI safety community.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, andcontact us if you have feedback.
Executive summary: A potential crash in AI stocks, while not necessarily reflecting long-term AI progress, could have negative short-term effects on AI safety efforts through reduced funding, shifted public sentiment, and second-order impacts on the AI safety community.
Key points:
AI stocks, like Nvidia, have a significant chance of crashing 50% or more in the coming years based on historical volatility and typical patterns with new technologies.
A crash could occur if AI revenues fail to grow fast enough to meet market expectations, even if capabilities continue advancing, or due to broader economic factors.
An AI stock crash could modestly lengthen AI timelines by reducing investment capital, especially for startups.
The wealth of many AI safety donors is correlated with AI stocks, so a crash could tighten the funding landscape for AI safety organizations.
Public sentiment could turn against AI safety concerns after a crash, branding advocates as alarmists and making it harder to push for policy changes.
Second-order effects, like damaged morale and increased media attacks, could exacerbate the direct impacts of a crash on the AI safety community.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.