I should maybe have been more cautious—how messaging will pan out is really unpredictable.
However, the basic idea is that if you’re saying “X might be a big risk!” and then X turns out to be a damp squib, it looks like you cried wolf.
If there’s a big AI crash, I expect there will be a lot of people rubbing their hands saying “wow those doomers were so wrong about AI being a big deal! so silly to worry about that!”
That said, I agree if your messaging is just “let’s end AI!”, then there’s some circumstances under which you could look better after a crash e.g. especially if it looks like your efforts contributed to it, or it failed due to reasons you predicted / the things you were protesting about (e.g. accidents happening, causing it to get shut down).
However, if the AI crash is for unrelated reasons (e.g. the scaling laws stop working, it takes longer to commercialise than people hope), then I think the Pause AI people could also look silly – why did we bother slowing down the mundane utility we could get from LLMs if there’s no big risk?
I should maybe have been more cautious—how messaging will pan out is really unpredictable.
However, the basic idea is that if you’re saying “X might be a big risk!” and then X turns out to be a damp squib, it looks like you cried wolf.
If there’s a big AI crash, I expect there will be a lot of people rubbing their hands saying “wow those doomers were so wrong about AI being a big deal! so silly to worry about that!”
That said, I agree if your messaging is just “let’s end AI!”, then there’s some circumstances under which you could look better after a crash e.g. especially if it looks like your efforts contributed to it, or it failed due to reasons you predicted / the things you were protesting about (e.g. accidents happening, causing it to get shut down).
However, if the AI crash is for unrelated reasons (e.g. the scaling laws stop working, it takes longer to commercialise than people hope), then I think the Pause AI people could also look silly – why did we bother slowing down the mundane utility we could get from LLMs if there’s no big risk?