Should donations be counter-cyclical? At least as a “matter of when” (I remember a previous similar conversation on Reddit, but it was mainly about deciding where to donate to). I don’t think patient philanthropists should “give now instead of later” just because of that (we’ll probably have worse crisis), but it seems like frequent donors (like GWWC pledgers) should consider anticipating their donations (particularly if their personal spending has decreased) - and also take into account expectations about future exchange rates. Does it make any sense?
One challenge will be that any attempt to time donations based on economic conditions risks becoming a backdoor attempt to time the market, which is notoriously hard.
I don’t think this is a big concern. When people say “timing the market” they mean acting before the market does. But donating countercyclically means acting after the market does, which is obviously much easier :)
Should donations be counter-cyclical? At least as a “matter of when” (I remember a previous similar conversation on Reddit, but it was mainly about deciding where to donate to). I don’t think patient philanthropists should “give now instead of later” just because of that (we’ll probably have worse crisis), but it seems like frequent donors (like GWWC pledgers) should consider anticipating their donations (particularly if their personal spending has decreased) - and also take into account expectations about future exchange rates. Does it make any sense?
One challenge will be that any attempt to time donations based on economic conditions risks becoming a backdoor attempt to time the market, which is notoriously hard.
I don’t think this is a big concern. When people say “timing the market” they mean acting before the market does. But donating countercyclically means acting after the market does, which is obviously much easier :)