We know that the track record of pundits is terrible, but many international consultancy firms have been publishing annual “global risks reports” like the WEF’s, where they list the main global risks (e.g. top 10) for a certain period (e.g., 2y). Well, I was wondering if someone has measured their consistency; I mean, I suppose that if you publish in 2018 a list of the top 10 risks for 2019 & 2020, you should expect many of the same risks to show up in your 2019 report (i.e., if you are a reliable predictor, risks in report y should appear in report y+1). Hasn’t anyone checked this yet? If not, I’ll file this under “a pet project I’ll probably not have time to take in the foreseeable future”
I guess any report must be considered on its own terms but I’ve been pretty down on this stuff as a category ever since I heard the Center for Strategic and International Studies was cheerleading the idea that there were WMDs in Iraq.
How consistent are “global risk reports”?
We know that the track record of pundits is terrible, but many international consultancy firms have been publishing annual “global risks reports” like the WEF’s, where they list the main global risks (e.g. top 10) for a certain period (e.g., 2y). Well, I was wondering if someone has measured their consistency; I mean, I suppose that if you publish in 2018 a list of the top 10 risks for 2019 & 2020, you should expect many of the same risks to show up in your 2019 report (i.e., if you are a reliable predictor, risks in report y should appear in report y+1). Hasn’t anyone checked this yet?
If not, I’ll file this under “a pet project I’ll probably not have time to take in the foreseeable future”
I guess any report must be considered on its own terms but I’ve been pretty down on this stuff as a category ever since I heard the Center for Strategic and International Studies was cheerleading the idea that there were WMDs in Iraq.