IMO good-faith, strong, fully written-up, readable, explicit critiques of longtermism are in short supply; indeed, I can’t think of any. The three you raise are good, but they are somewhat tentative and limited in scope. I think that stronger objections could be made.
FWIW, on the EA facebook page, I raised three critiques of longtermism in response to Finn Moorhouse’s excellent recent article on the subject, but all my comments were very brief.
The first critique involves defending person-affecting views in population ethics and arguing that, when you look at the details, the assumptions underlying them are surprisingly hard to reject. My own thinking here is very influenced by Bader (2022), which I think is a philosophical masterclass, but is also very dense and doesn’t address longtermism directly. There are other papers arguing for person-affecting views, e.g. Narveson (1967) and Heyd (2012) but both are now a bit dated—particularly Narveson—in the sense they don’t respond to the more sophisticated challenges to their views that have since been raised in the literature. For the latest survey of the literature and those challenges—albeit not one sympathetic to person-affecting views—see Greaves (2017).
The second draws on a couple of suggestions made by Webb (2021) and Berger (2021) about cluelessness. Webb (2021) is a reasonably substantial EA forum post about how we might worry that, the further in the future something happens, the smaller the expected value we should assign to it, which acts as an effective discount. However, Webb (2021) is pretty non-committal about how serious a challenge this is for longtermism and doesn’t frame it as one. Berger (2021) is talking on the 80k podcasts and suggests that longtermist interventions are either ‘narrow’ (e.g. AI safety) or ‘broad’ (‘improving politics’), where the former are not robustly good, and the latter are questionably better than existing ‘near-termist’ interventions such as cash transfers to the global poor. I wouldn’t describe this as a worked-out thesis though and Berger doesn’t state it very directly.
The third critique is that, a la Torres, longtermism might lead us towards totalitarianism. I don’t think this is a really serious objection, but I would like to see longtermists engage with it and say why they don’t believe it is.
I should probably disclose I’m currently in discussion with Forethought about a grant to write up some critiques of longtermism in order to fill some of this literature gap. Ideally, I’ll produce 2-3 articles within the next 18 months.
IMO good-faith, strong, fully written-up, readable, explicit critiques of longtermism are in short supply; indeed, I can’t think of any. The three you raise are good, but they are somewhat tentative and limited in scope. I think that stronger objections could be made.
FWIW, on the EA facebook page, I raised three critiques of longtermism in response to Finn Moorhouse’s excellent recent article on the subject, but all my comments were very brief.
The first critique involves defending person-affecting views in population ethics and arguing that, when you look at the details, the assumptions underlying them are surprisingly hard to reject. My own thinking here is very influenced by Bader (2022), which I think is a philosophical masterclass, but is also very dense and doesn’t address longtermism directly. There are other papers arguing for person-affecting views, e.g. Narveson (1967) and Heyd (2012) but both are now a bit dated—particularly Narveson—in the sense they don’t respond to the more sophisticated challenges to their views that have since been raised in the literature. For the latest survey of the literature and those challenges—albeit not one sympathetic to person-affecting views—see Greaves (2017).
The second draws on a couple of suggestions made by Webb (2021) and Berger (2021) about cluelessness. Webb (2021) is a reasonably substantial EA forum post about how we might worry that, the further in the future something happens, the smaller the expected value we should assign to it, which acts as an effective discount. However, Webb (2021) is pretty non-committal about how serious a challenge this is for longtermism and doesn’t frame it as one. Berger (2021) is talking on the 80k podcasts and suggests that longtermist interventions are either ‘narrow’ (e.g. AI safety) or ‘broad’ (‘improving politics’), where the former are not robustly good, and the latter are questionably better than existing ‘near-termist’ interventions such as cash transfers to the global poor. I wouldn’t describe this as a worked-out thesis though and Berger doesn’t state it very directly.
The third critique is that, a la Torres, longtermism might lead us towards totalitarianism. I don’t think this is a really serious objection, but I would like to see longtermists engage with it and say why they don’t believe it is.
I should probably disclose I’m currently in discussion with Forethought about a grant to write up some critiques of longtermism in order to fill some of this literature gap. Ideally, I’ll produce 2-3 articles within the next 18 months.
I strongly welcome the critiques you’ll hopefully write, Michael!