Michael_Wiebe comments on Evidence, cluelessness, and the long term—Hilary Greaves

[Michael_Wiebe]

Is this longtermism?

1. List all possible actions {$A_1$,..,$A_K$}.

2. For each action $A_j$, calculate expected value $V_t\left(A_j\right)$ over t=1:$\infty$, using the social welfare function.

3. If we can’t calculate $V_t$ for some t, due to cluelessness, then skip over that action.

4. Out of the remaining actions, choose the action with the highest expected value.

[Michael_Wiebe]

Or, (3′): if we can’t calculate $V_t$ for $A_i$ and $A_j$, then assume that they’re equal, and rank them by using their expected value over periods before $t$.