Is this longtermism?
List all possible actions {A1,..,AK}.
For each action Aj, calculate expected value Vt(Aj) over t=1:∞, using the social welfare function.
If we can’t calculate Vt for some t, due to cluelessness, then skip over that action.
Out of the remaining actions, choose the action with the highest expected value.
Or, (3′): if we can’t calculate Vt for Ai and Aj, then assume that they’re equal, and rank them by using their expected value over periods before t.
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Is this longtermism?
List all possible actions {A1,..,AK}.
For each action Aj, calculate expected value Vt(Aj) over t=1:∞, using the social welfare function.
If we can’t calculate Vt for some t, due to cluelessness, then skip over that action.
Out of the remaining actions, choose the action with the highest expected value.
Or, (3′): if we can’t calculate Vt for Ai and Aj, then assume that they’re equal, and rank them by using their expected value over periods before t.