Okay, and thank you very much. But how do we know that if the universe timeline were run over and over again that it would be positive in value? Why not think that the future’s value “in expectation” is neutral or very negative? Everyone seems to assume that the future will be good! Why?
But how do we know that if the universe timeline were run over and over again that it would be positive in value?
This is really important and valid, but there’s a lot going on in this question!
For clarity, note that your first question seemed to be one about statistics or math. This new question is valid too.
The short answer is that there is no way to be certain if the universe is good or bad in expectation (and this also depends on what you value, for example, “negative utilitarians” are worried about suffering more than other people).
Everyone seems to assume that the future will be good!
Yes, many people have this belief. There are principled answers why.
For example, if you think humans are basically good, and can get more organized, good human activity and values could spread and produce better things in the future, as opposed to there being a lot of rocks in the universe or something.
Maybe what you are getting at is some topics or focuses of “Longtermism”, which focuses on the long term future and longtermists often talks positively about its value.
Why not think that the future’s value “in expectation” is neutral or very negative?
Yes, this is valid to believe.
Note that actually, longtermism doesn’t need a positive future, just a future we can impact meaningfully. For example, some people focus on “s-risk”, because even a tiny chance of some system of suffering spreading across the universe seems incredibly important.
For those people, or people who have “very short timelines”, they actually put zero or maybe negative value on the future. But there still seems like ways to impact the future for many of them.
Okay, and thank you very much. But how do we know that if the universe timeline were run over and over again that it would be positive in value? Why not think that the future’s value “in expectation” is neutral or very negative? Everyone seems to assume that the future will be good! Why?
This is really important and valid, but there’s a lot going on in this question!
For clarity, note that your first question seemed to be one about statistics or math. This new question is valid too.
The short answer is that there is no way to be certain if the universe is good or bad in expectation (and this also depends on what you value, for example, “negative utilitarians” are worried about suffering more than other people).
Yes, many people have this belief. There are principled answers why.
For example, if you think humans are basically good, and can get more organized, good human activity and values could spread and produce better things in the future, as opposed to there being a lot of rocks in the universe or something.
Maybe what you are getting at is some topics or focuses of “Longtermism”, which focuses on the long term future and longtermists often talks positively about its value.
Yes, this is valid to believe.
Note that actually, longtermism doesn’t need a positive future, just a future we can impact meaningfully. For example, some people focus on “s-risk”, because even a tiny chance of some system of suffering spreading across the universe seems incredibly important.
For those people, or people who have “very short timelines”, they actually put zero or maybe negative value on the future. But there still seems like ways to impact the future for many of them.