It’s hard to say. Considering there are fewer than 300 people estimated working on AI Safety and it’s still just starting to gain traction, I wouldn’t expect us to know a ton about it yet.
Even in established fields people are expected to usually take years or even decades before they can produce truly great research.
Psychology was still using lobotomies until 55 years ago. We’ve learned a lot since then and there’s still much more to learn. It took a similar amount of time for AI capabilities to get to where they are now. AI Safety is much newer and could look completely different in 10 years. Or, if nobody works on it or the people working on it are unable to make progress, it could look relatively similar.
It’s hard to say. Considering there are fewer than 300 people estimated working on AI Safety and it’s still just starting to gain traction, I wouldn’t expect us to know a ton about it yet.
Even in established fields people are expected to usually take years or even decades before they can produce truly great research.
Psychology was still using lobotomies until 55 years ago. We’ve learned a lot since then and there’s still much more to learn. It took a similar amount of time for AI capabilities to get to where they are now. AI Safety is much newer and could look completely different in 10 years. Or, if nobody works on it or the people working on it are unable to make progress, it could look relatively similar.