it does just strike me as really, really unlikely that we can solve AI x-risk right now
I think Erik wasn’t commenting so much on this number, but rather its combination with the assumption that there is a 94% chance things are fine by default.
I.e. you are assuming that there is a 94% chance it’s trivially easy, and 6% chance it’s insanely hard.
Very few problems have such a bimodal nature, and I also would be interested to understand what’s generating it for you.
I think Erik wasn’t commenting so much on this number, but rather its combination with the assumption that there is a 94% chance things are fine by default.
I.e. you are assuming that there is a 94% chance it’s trivially easy, and 6% chance it’s insanely hard.
Very few problems have such a bimodal nature, and I also would be interested to understand what’s generating it for you.