I checked again and, yeah, that’s right, sorry about the misunderstanding.
I think the root of my confusion on this is that most of my thinking about prediction platform designs, is situated in the genre of designs where users can create questions without oversight, and in this genre I’m hoping to find something highly General, and Robust. These sorts of designs always seem to collapse into being prediction markets. So it comes as a surprise to me that just removing user-generated questions seems to turn out to prevent that collapse[1], and this thing it becomes instead, turns out to be pretty Robust. Just did not expect that.
[1] (If you had something like Metaculus and you added arbitrary user-generated questions (I think that would allow unlimited point farming, but, that aside), that would enable trading points as assets, as phony questions with user-controlled resolution criteria could be made just for transferring points between a pair of users, with equal, opposite transfers of currency out of band.)
I checked again and, yeah, that’s right, sorry about the misunderstanding.
I think the root of my confusion on this is that most of my thinking about prediction platform designs, is situated in the genre of designs where users can create questions without oversight, and in this genre I’m hoping to find something highly General, and Robust. These sorts of designs always seem to collapse into being prediction markets.
So it comes as a surprise to me that just removing user-generated questions seems to turn out to prevent that collapse[1], and this thing it becomes instead, turns out to be pretty Robust. Just did not expect that.
[1] (If you had something like Metaculus and you added arbitrary user-generated questions (I think that would allow unlimited point farming, but, that aside), that would enable trading points as assets, as phony questions with user-controlled resolution criteria could be made just for transferring points between a pair of users, with equal, opposite transfers of currency out of band.)