Thanks, Sanjay. Generalizability is indeed crucial, and we discuss the conditions for success of jurisdictional REDD+ (JR+ hereafter), including things like effective political incentives to avoid issues around property rights and corruption (see subsection “Political leaders need incentives to follow through”), as well as the need for effective MRV (see section “REDD+ measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) standards are thorough but not yet sufficient to adequately account for forest degradation”), though we acknowledge that there is much additional research that could be done to understand these issues across various contexts. We (like the experts with whom we spoke) see reason for optimism in the recent advances toward JR+, technological advances in improving data collection and improving MRV, and improvements in certification in light of the very issues you mention. We also suggest that funding toward programs that aim to improve the likelihood of JR+ success along these dimensions could be worth researching, though we did not ourselves explore any such programs.
As mentioned in the response to Johannes, we conducted most of this research in the beginning of 2022 (i.e. many months before the Brazilian election). However, the lowest-cost opportunities according to the WEF and McKinsey (2021) report, on which we rely heavily for our CE estimates, are not in Brazil, so we imagine the change in the political landscape would not substantively change our general stance that JR+ appears cost-effective and there is RFMF to get it off the ground. The return of Lula may actually improve the prospects for JR+, given the difficulty of achieving its ends without political buy-in.
Indeed, we also make the point that efforts to expand the coverage of JR+ are crucial for preventing leakage. And we did not come across much in the way of countries threatening to abandon REDD+ due to lack of prompt payment in our research, though we would definitely be interested to hear more about this if you have some sources you could share, and we agree that Lula’s recent election will likely change the political rhetoric in the Brazilian context.
Indeed, we were more pessimistic about REDD+ when we started the research for many of the reasons that you and others have expressed skepticism, and rightfully. We hope the report adequately justifies our own stance. And of course, we are very open to comparing CE models and outcomes—please reach out if you do build such a CEA!
Thanks, Sanjay. Generalizability is indeed crucial, and we discuss the conditions for success of jurisdictional REDD+ (JR+ hereafter), including things like effective political incentives to avoid issues around property rights and corruption (see subsection “Political leaders need incentives to follow through”), as well as the need for effective MRV (see section “REDD+ measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) standards are thorough but not yet sufficient to adequately account for forest degradation”), though we acknowledge that there is much additional research that could be done to understand these issues across various contexts. We (like the experts with whom we spoke) see reason for optimism in the recent advances toward JR+, technological advances in improving data collection and improving MRV, and improvements in certification in light of the very issues you mention. We also suggest that funding toward programs that aim to improve the likelihood of JR+ success along these dimensions could be worth researching, though we did not ourselves explore any such programs.
As mentioned in the response to Johannes, we conducted most of this research in the beginning of 2022 (i.e. many months before the Brazilian election). However, the lowest-cost opportunities according to the WEF and McKinsey (2021) report, on which we rely heavily for our CE estimates, are not in Brazil, so we imagine the change in the political landscape would not substantively change our general stance that JR+ appears cost-effective and there is RFMF to get it off the ground. The return of Lula may actually improve the prospects for JR+, given the difficulty of achieving its ends without political buy-in.
Indeed, we also make the point that efforts to expand the coverage of JR+ are crucial for preventing leakage. And we did not come across much in the way of countries threatening to abandon REDD+ due to lack of prompt payment in our research, though we would definitely be interested to hear more about this if you have some sources you could share, and we agree that Lula’s recent election will likely change the political rhetoric in the Brazilian context.
Indeed, we were more pessimistic about REDD+ when we started the research for many of the reasons that you and others have expressed skepticism, and rightfully. We hope the report adequately justifies our own stance. And of course, we are very open to comparing CE models and outcomes—please reach out if you do build such a CEA!