I agree that the second- and third-order effects of e.g. donating to super-effective animal advocacy charities are, more likely than not, larger than those of e.g. volunteering at local animal shelters. (though that may depend on the exact charity you’re donating to?)
However, it’s likely that some other action has even larger second- and third-order effects than donating to top charities—after all, most (though not all) of these charities are optimizing for first-order effects, rather than the second- and third-order ones.
Therefore, it’s not obviously justifiable to simply ignore second- and third-order effects in our analysis.
I agree that the second- and third-order effects of e.g. donating to super-effective animal advocacy charities are, more likely than not, larger than those of e.g. volunteering at local animal shelters. (though that may depend on the exact charity you’re donating to?)
However, it’s likely that some other action has even larger second- and third-order effects than donating to top charities—after all, most (though not all) of these charities are optimizing for first-order effects, rather than the second- and third-order ones.
Therefore, it’s not obviously justifiable to simply ignore second- and third-order effects in our analysis.